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By cam (Sat Jul 26, 2008 at 03:57:22 PM EST) (all tags)
Obama's speech in Berlin and most likely approach to foreign policy [ssr warning]. Looks like international liberalism might make a comeback. Last time it was tried was before the bipolar nature of the Cold War forced realpolitick and detente.


Americans are going to have ditch what Rush Limbaugh calls liberalism; international liberalism was around long before conservative talkback radio. It finds it earlier expressions in some of Kant's musings on the international order. It has been a consistent strand in various forms in Australian foreign policy with Doc Evatt the most notable user of it.

It is defined similar to liberalism. Common cause in humanity, morality, freedom etc. It is based on debate, deliberation, reason and the seeking of minimum dissatisfaction between actors. Consequently it pays a lot of importance on honesty of communication and group action. Obama's speech was consistent with most of that.

There were other elements of the use of national power, but there wasnt anything that said, "Fuck you europe" for instance like Rumsfields statement on 'Old Europe". Or the neoconservative view of dominant national power meaning unilateral decision making. No foreign policy is ever pure; Australia has three competing methodologies and all are used at different times by Prime Ministers and Foreign Ministers though one tends to dominate at different times.

We havent really seen how Rudd is going to operate his foreign policy though, most of his policies have been relatively meek so far, probably still finding his feet as a new executive - the abuses will come in the third term - but no over-riding foreign policy doctrine has emerged yet. I suspect that Obama's view of international liberalism will be palatable to the Rudd Government.

Walter Mead argued that there were four types of American foreign policy; Hamiltonian, Jeffersonian, Wilsonian and Jacksonian. It has been a while since I read it and I cannot remember which one he equated with international liberalism; probably a mix of Wilsonian and Jeffersonian. I cannot recall the taxonomies well enough to go through them.

Funny, commented on Obama in relation to Mead before.

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International Liberalism | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
Disagree on pretty much all of that by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 3) #1 Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 03:24:27 AM EST
I don't see how you can say neoconservative foreign policy "stunk" of realpolitik. It's the opposite: realpolitik said you America should work with undemocratic nations to defend it's interests, neoconservatism said America should spread democracy. On the idealism/realism division in foreign policy, neoconservatism was always on the idealism side.

Obama speech seemed pretty much his speciality: sonorous, vacuous. The Bush administration always tried to round up as much international support as it was able: UN resolutions, the "coalition of the willing". Obama isn't really promising anything new or different when he says he favours international cooperation.

The aim of the tour seems to me to compensate for Obama's lack of experience by demonstrating that his personal charm and charisma, implying that he can sweet-talk the Europeans into rustling up some more troops for the trouble spots.

Even in terms of tone, the Bush administration has shifted its tone drastically from the strident "axis of evil" stuff in the first term. Bush tries to sound a lot more conciliatory now.

Liberalism: can't find it now, but a while back lm made a pretty convincing argument that George W. Bush was a classical liberal. Insofar as Obama is too, he's continuing that tradition.

You have no doubt Barack Obama will be the next US President. I'm still not sure how to call it. I think the result depends on VP choices, the debates, and whether McCain has any senior moments or temper tantrums on video.

But I've been keeping an eye on Rasmussen polls (here and here for instance) and so far it seems Obama generally has about a 5% lead. Compared to say, Michael Dukakis' 17% lead, it's not that impressive.

Other factors: the greater turnout of older people, the tendency of voters to express risky choices in polls but plump for safer choices in the polling booth, idealistic candidates tend to suffer more from negative campaigning than "safe pair of hands" types. Also I think that unconscious racism is going to lead to white voters finding reasons to vote for McCain. So at the moment, while I'm not sure, I'd give the edge to McCain at the moment. In terms of probabilities, I'd say 55% McCain, 45% Obama.
--
"Life is too short to be interested in everything, but it is good to be interested in as many things as are necessary to fill our days."-Bertrand Russell


Make money fast $$$ by herbert (4.00 / 2) #2 Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 06:33:05 AM EST
Well, over a period of months, maybe.

The odds on betfair currently imply probabilities around 30% McCain and 70% Obama.

The expected profit from a bet on McCain, if your probabilities were correct, and if I worked it out right, would be about +80% of the stake.


[ Parent ]

I never gamble by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 2) #5 Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 03:27:42 PM EST
But those odds are oh so tempting.
--
"Life is too short to be interested in everything, but it is good to be interested in as many things as are necessary to fill our days."-Bertrand Russell
[ Parent ]

Note by ucblockhead (4.00 / 1) #10 Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 09:40:07 PM EST
Unconcious racism, i.e. "The Bradley effect", seems to have gone away according to studies of more recent polls and elections.

Also, note the effectiveness of Hillary Clinton's negative campaigning against Obama's idealism.
----
ウセーバラケダ
[ Parent ]

replies by cam (4.00 / 2) #3 Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 11:01:17 AM EST
neoconservatism was a repudiation of Wilsonianism. Modern conservatives like Andrew Sullivan like to claim it is radical and idealistic so they can disown it as being unconservative but it is based on unilateral national power and the realpolitick that the global hegemon doesnt have to tell. The UN stuff the Bush Administration did and the 'for democracy' talk are all politics. They are not their policy.


Bush is intrinsically political. Exceptionally good at winning elections, poor at governance. The coalition of the willing, deficits dont matter, mr gorbachev remove steroids from baseball, etc are all political. Obama is couching his speech in Berlin in terms of the common cause of humanity. That is classic to international liberalism and its roots in the enlightenment.


I don't think lack of experience is an issue for Obama. It probably was to make him look more presidential by tramping the same grounds as Kennedy/Reagan. Then again it might just be an attempt to establish himself as an 'international' president elect. Which I think he has a claim to.


The republicans are broken as a democratic party atm. They are getting murdered in the American equivalents of bi-elections. I dont think it is a close race. I know others think with the electoral college and the mid-western states being heavily nationalistic/conservative that it will be a close race. I dont think so.


cam

Freedom, liberty, equity and an Australian Republic
[ Parent ]

Well by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #4 Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 03:27:04 PM EST
The point of realpolitik was to place national self-interest above idealism and ideology. The neoconservative foreign policy focus of the Bush administration was to spread democracy and free-market ideas. They're pretty much the opposite.
Bush is intrinsically political. Exceptionally good at winning elections, poor at governance. The coalition of the willing, deficits dont matter, mr gorbachev remove steroids from baseball, etc are all political.
I'm not quite sure what that bit means. Whether Bush is "poor at governance" doesn't affect his political ideas. I'm not sure what you mean by "political" there: it's seems a bit tautological that his politics are political.

US voters seem to like to balance a legislature with an executive from the opposing parties; either consciously or because it increases negative motivation from the other side. So, I don't think a Democrat Congress necessarily gives Obama an advantage.
--
"Life is too short to be interested in everything, but it is good to be interested in as many things as are necessary to fill our days."-Bertrand Russell
[ Parent ]

No by Herring (4.00 / 1) #6 Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 04:03:49 PM EST
Sure they talked about spreading democracy etc. but I don't see much being spread to China or Saudi Arabia. Also, looking at the history:
"We're here to get Saddam's WMDs"
No WMDs found
"We're here because of the Al Qaeada links"
Al Qaeada links found to be bogus
"Er .... we're here to spread democracy."

I'm English, and as such I crave disappointment. - Bill Bailey
[ Parent ]

Stay tuned by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #7 Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 05:04:10 PM EST
I'm reading this at the moment, so I'll be posting a bit about ideology and incompetence in Iraq when I've finished.
--
"Life is too short to be interested in everything, but it is good to be interested in as many things as are necessary to fill our days."-Bertrand Russell
[ Parent ]

Oo - I am interested in that one by Herring (4.00 / 1) #8 Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 06:20:02 PM EST
Let me know.

Anyhow, I think my point was that while there has been much talk of "spreading democracy" the action seems to have been limited to the one major oil producing country that decided to trade in Euros instead of USD. And, as I recall, the population hasn't been allowed a vote on whether to switch back.

I'm English, and as such I crave disappointment. - Bill Bailey
[ Parent ]

The author of that by wiredog (4.00 / 1) #12 Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 07:49:49 AM EST
is one of the lead foreign correspondents for the Washington Post.

Earth First!
(We can strip mine the rest later.)

[ Parent ]

I dont think it was by cam (4.00 / 2) #9 Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 07:41:45 PM EST
that was the political sell. Iraq was invaded to ensure energy supply. America is going to be in Iraq for a long time. The democracy/freedom stuff was the political sell. I can see that securing energy (from China/India/political-disturbance) makes sense. But invading a country to do it makes me morally and ethically quesy. I dont like the idea of national power being used to overthrow governments in other nations. The Bush Administration tried many mechanisms to make it a political sell and ended up settling on casting opponents as 'the enemy within' which is consistent with Schmittian conservatism in order to establish the 'political'.

The Bush Administration is not free market. Even there they are political first. See Cheney's 'deficits dont matter' which he means dont matter politically, not economically. Bush apparently rang up the Federal Reserve to yell at them to keep interest rates down and we have the executive and legislative promising to bail out homeowners who cant afford their homes. Bush's policies have been inflation, over-spending and socialism; not capitalism. He is not free market.

Bush and Rove have been exceptionally good at politics, especially in the democratic politics of getting elected and re-elected. That is different to governance; which has been woeful under Bush. He has been better when he has had a political opponent in Congress - such as the current Democratic majority. He is undoubtedly good at politics.

US run off elections for vacated seats have apparently been good bellewhethers (sp) for presidential and congressional elections in the same bi-elections are in Westminster. The republicans have been getting trounced in the recent ones of those. The republican party will most likely remain broken until there is a democratic president that can be pushed back against.

cam
Freedom, liberty, equity and an Australian Republic
[ Parent ]

We've been through this before by TheophileEscargot (4.00 / 1) #11 Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 02:08:28 AM EST
Saddam Hussein was even keener to sell oil than America was to get it. Realpolitik would have meant lifting sanctions. That and his Sunni rivalry with Shiite neighbours were the reasons that Saddam Hussein was a former US client.

Realpolitik

It was neoconservative ideology that dictated the invasion of Iraq.
--
"Life is too short to be interested in everything, but it is good to be interested in as many things as are necessary to fill our days."-Bertrand Russell
[ Parent ]

I suspect it depends on the strategic goal by Scrymarch (4.00 / 1) #15 Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 09:09:19 AM EST
... much as Herring says.

If the strategic goal was to get oil flowing again, realpolitik says to buy it. If the strategic goal was to establish a colonial beachhead in the Middle East, or re-establish some sort of superpower slap down cred, or some such, realpolitik says to turn the oil down in search of the larger goal.

I suspect it was a confused mix of both. Certainly the neocons are idealists not realpolikians, but Dick Cheney doesn't seem like natural neocons. GWB, not sure. One thing though, is realpolitik usually involves a pretty down to earth dealing with the world as it is; blood, shit and all: GWB doesn't seem to do that.

Interested to see your review.

The Political Science Department of the University of Woolloomooloo

[ Parent ]

I think the strategy was to secure the supply by cam (4.00 / 1) #16 Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:41:58 AM EST
of energy by using America's most powerful asset - its military. Establishing a colonial government means America gets first dibs on it and keeps it out of China's and India's hands. Trouble with relying on the market with a scarce resource is that sellers have a horrid habit of selling to any buyer.

I dont doubt there was a mix of idealism in there, but since the Carter Doctrine there has been recognition in US policy that it will initiate military action to ensure the supply of oil for its economy. The cover was a political sell IMO, made more obviously so by there being no traction on it.

Realipolitick says secure it by a permanent US presence in the Middle East. Having Israel wasnt enough and Iraq was the obvious candidate for having a permanent US force there.

cam
Freedom, liberty, equity and an Australian Republic
[ Parent ]

Coming in late, but. by wiredog (4.00 / 1) #13 Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 07:55:19 AM EST
I agree with TheophileEscargot about neoconservativism not being realpolitik. The neoconservatives started out as liberal (leftist, really) interventionists, and became 'conservative'. Some (much of the National Review crowd) came out of the Catholic Church and are very conservative on religious issues, but otherwise are interventionists. Real Crusaders.

Chris Hitchens political changes since 9/11 give you a good look at what the origins of neoconservativism looked like.

Henry Kissinger is the best example in USian politics of realpolitik.

Earth First!
(We can strip mine the rest later.)



neoconservatism's foreign policy by cam (4.00 / 1) #17 Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 11:01:49 AM EST
was based on the reality of power politics. Basically the US is the global hegemon so it can do whatever the hell it likes unilaterally and the rest of the world can suck it up. It based on national power and not international liberalism.

Kristol outlines neoconservatist foreign policy in this article. It is pretty run of the mill. Based on patriotism, US interests being global, repudiation of world government and US hegemon being unassailable.

cam
Freedom, liberty, equity and an Australian Republic
[ Parent ]

I don't use the big words by duxup (4.00 / 1) #14 Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 08:35:15 AM EST
All I know is that I don't get the Republican process when it comes to the rest of the world.

1. Fuck, no nation building, that's stupid shit, not even in nations that don't matter much.

2. Fuck we've been attacked, let's go nation building!

Granted I'm sure some conservatives or Republicans will and do say hey those are the neoconservatives not us! but IMO the super patriotism that exists in that party makes step 2 very likely.

Anyway Obama is a free +2 in public relations so that's a good thing.  McCain, I don't know what the #### he's thinking anymore.  I wasn't a fan in the past but I could follow his words and they added up.  Dude went insane after loosing to Bush the last time and has fully embraced saying anything and everything possible.
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