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By lm (Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:47:22 AM EST) (all tags)
Oil. Old analysis of Communitarianism. Weber. Bill Cosby. Latin v. Greek.


The Bakken oil fields in the Dakotas may have tappable reserves of 100 billion barrels. Four interesting things to me here. First, the oil is only extractable because of advances in drilling technology. Second, the cost is being guestimated at $70 a barrel. Also, the analysis of the amount of oil in the field has been estimated from as low as 100 million barrels to as high as almost a trillion barrels and, because of the upper end of the estimates, has recently been fodder for the late night conspiracy talk show circuit. If the US can ramp up production, it will certainly change the world market a bit but with the high cost per barrell, it's certainly not the death knell for OPEC that some folks are hoping for. A US Sentate report on the exploratory analysis is due out tomorrow. The most interesting thing, to me, is that a world where $70 per barrel oil extraction is profitable is most likely also a world where production of oil substitutes is profitable.

Inspired by TE's comments on Communitariannism, I did a bit of Googling, an article from the late nineties was one of the top hits. The ABCs of Communitarianism. Zakariah's take?

Communitarianism was supposed to be a third way, neither liberal nor conservative, that charted a new course for philosophy and politics. But as this primer suggests, it has become a collection of meaningless terms, used as new bottles into which the old wine of liberalism and conservatism is poured.

By way of Club Troppo, I came across a link to Sandy Levinson's Max Weber, Iraq, and the Second Amendment. Which is interesting mostly for the attempt to apply Weberian thinking to the modern day. I think Levinson misses the obvious, namely that the sorts of weapons commonplace in Iraq are about of the same relative magnitude as the sorts of weapons commonplace during the US Revolutionary War and early federal period. The last I read, each household in Iraq was allowed to keep one assault rifle and more than one handgun. Of course, if the SCOTUS rules according to one line of questioning used in the recent hearing, the floodgates may open in the US for civilians to have RPGs.

The May issue of The Atlantic has an excellent review of Bill Cosby's present speaking mission regarding, in part, the subject of public shame. Unfortunately, it was on my `to read' stack on my desk before I wrote my Doxos article on shame last week. Also, unfortunately, The Atlantic hasn't put it online yet. (Those slackers are only up to putting up the April issue.) But the author, Ta-Nehesi Coates, does a good job at offering a good critique of the practicality of Plato's suggestion of modifying public behavior by use of shame. Not that he mentions Plato by name. What he actually offers in the conclusion to the article is a well written assertion that Cosby's thesis rests on a revisionist, and incorrect, view of history. Most of the article is centered around The Pound Cake Speech

The more I study Latin, the more I see the base upon which the view that the Romans were more interested in practical matters while the Greeks were more interested in theory. In many ways, Greek seems like a more primitive language but it is primitive in a way that makes ideas seem more concrete. For example, abstract nouns in Greek tend to be one gender or the other mostly in line with stereo typical conceptions of masculine and feminine while the Latin counterparts tend to be neuter. This would seem to be counter-intuitive to my point at first glance. But I think it has the effect of making it easier to contemplate abstractions when it is easier to form a mental image based upon the personification of an idea. Neuter beings, it seems to me, are more difficult for most people to mentally picture. Along the same vein, the Latin we've learned for `the world' or `the universe' is mundus from which English takes the mundane, earthly things. But in Greek, the first choice for `the world' or `the universe' is cosmos, which has arrived in English much the same way as in Greek. While I'm certain that there are other words in both Greek and Latin that are more exact analogues one way or the other, based on the assumption that the words we've learned first will be the ones most common in use for an idea, I can see why some would argue that Romans were more down to earth and the Greeks, more focused on theory and pontification.

Not that I've been a huge proponent of that theory, mind you. Between Greek Fire, the armor of the Hoplite, and some of the old machines from antiquity, I've always thought that the Greeks had plenty of grounding in the practical. Not to mention the engineering that underlies the Acropolis.

Speaking of linguistics, NPR had an interesting bit the other day on what the notion of national conversation means.

That is all.

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News round up and mostly random thoughts | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback
production of oil substitutes by wiredog (4.00 / 1) #1 Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 11:45:32 AM EST
But which substitutes? Oil shale/tar? Coal-->Oil? Solar?

It's becoming increasing clear that ethanol is an all-around Bad Idea.

Earth First!
(We can strip mine the rest later.)



corn based ethanol at least by georgeha (2.00 / 0) #3 Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 12:41:48 PM EST
Brazil seems to do okay with sugarcane, and cellulose based ethanol could work.


[ Parent ]

Other ethanols by wiredog (2.00 / 0) #4 Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 02:33:42 PM EST
take even more energy to produce than corn. Brazil grows quite a bit of sugar to make ethanol from, but there's not much land available in the US for sugarcane. It is a tropical grass.

Earth First!
(We can strip mine the rest later.)

[ Parent ]

That's not my understanding by lm (2.00 / 0) #5 Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 03:31:38 PM EST
Corn is one of the worst things to make ethanol from. I think sorghum and sugar beets both beat out corn in terms of efficiency of ethanol production.

But aside from ethanol, are the various ways of making biodiesel, making fuel from solid waste, coal gasification, etc. One of the largest arguments against gas alternatives in the past has been the cost of production. When the cost for equivalancy is ranges from eighty to a hundred dollars per barrel, there's going to be very limited research and development until the outlook is that crude will be at $70 per barrel or higher for the foreseeable future.


There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

The great thing about SCOTUS 2nd Amendment by Rogerborg (2.00 / 0) #2 Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 12:16:34 PM EST
deliberations is that you just know that everyone in the room has got an enormous boner, whichever side (or gender) they represent.

Say, how can you measure the cost of oil extraction in dollar$, when the value of a dollar is highly dependent on the global 'price' of oil?

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Metus amatores matrum compescit, non clementia.


Bakken oil fields by MillMan (2.00 / 0) #6 Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 04:32:04 PM EST
I doubt it will impact the oil market even if the recoverable reserves number is high due to the relatively low extraction rates that will be achieved.

When I'm imprisoned as an enemy combatant, will you blog about it?


What is going to limit the extraction rates? by lm (2.00 / 0) #8 Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 10:46:06 PM EST
Admittedly, I'm not really read up on the topic so I could be way off base. But I thought horizontal drilling actually offered the possibility of far greater extraction rates than vertical drilling. And given there's little to no environmental concern over the badlands of the Dakotas, that pretty much only leaves capital investment as a limit. I can certainly see unwillingness to invest being a large cap.

But is there something else that I'm missing?


There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

poor rock permiability by MillMan (2.00 / 0) #9 Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 11:38:02 PM EST
Which means, to oversimplify, it takes a lot of energy to suck out a small amount of oil. Best guess is that the field/range produces a relatively small amount of oil for many years.

Parts of Wyoming and Colorado hold two trillion barrels of oil (google "oil shale"). The challenges to getting it out of the ground are the same as the bakken field, but quantitatively more difficult (I don't think there is much development going on). This article sums it up.

For this field specifically, this thread is a good place to start. Westexas, the guy who started the thread, definitely knows what he is talking about, and sums up the unknowns about the field.

Wikipedia has an article on the field as well.

When I'm imprisoned as an enemy combatant, will you blog about it?
[ Parent ]

Right, right now there are quite a few unknowns by lm (2.00 / 0) #10 Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 12:41:38 AM EST
The big news right now is that the USGS report is due out tomorrow. This report is supposed to make some of the unknowns into knowns.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

here it is by MillMan (2.00 / 0) #13 Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 05:04:00 PM EST
http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911

That's half a years worth of US consumption. Definitely good, but not enough to impact the market price.

When I'm imprisoned as an enemy combatant, will you blog about it?
[ Parent ]

yeah, I saw the press release earlier today by lm (2.00 / 0) #14 Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 06:17:57 PM EST
From 0.15 to 3 billion barrels is a nice increase, but hardly ground shaking.

There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

For the first 2 minutes of Nunberg's bit by MohammedNiyalSayeed (2.00 / 0) #7 Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:53:37 PM EST

I was thinking, "man, I hope he's a better linguist than he is a pundit", then he went all linguistic, and it was pretty sweet, and I found myself coming to the conclusion that he was absolutely correct. About what, I don't know, though I suspect I was led through that in the conversation he and I just virtually had.


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You can build the most elegant fountain in the world, but eventually a winged rat will be using it as a drinking bowl.


The magic number for oil substitutes by wumpus (2.00 / 0) #11 Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 08:02:02 AM EST
has traditionally been $60 a barrel. Whenever OPEC* managed to get the price up to that number, Saudi* would have to crank up production till it dropped far enough to prevent substitute startups.

Of course, Since the dollar has lost about 1/3 of its value lately, I'm not sure if we are over that number or not.

Wumpus

*In practice, I suspect these names should be reversed.



IIRC, $60/barrell is the new threshold by lm (2.00 / 0) #12 Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 03:45:27 PM EST
There was a minor brouhaha a month or so ago (maybe longer, time flies by quickly) when several oil firms increased their threshold for new investment in an oil field to $60. I think current cost of pulling a barrel out of the ground is around $40 per barrel.

But the USGS report is out. The magic number is 3 to 4.3 Billion of recoverable oil using today's technology. I can go back to laughing at the conspiracy theorists.


There is no more degenerate kind of state than that in which the richest are supposed to be the best.
Cicero, The Republic
[ Parent ]

News round up and mostly random thoughts | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 hidden) | Trackback